Market Outlook

Long ago, I mentioned the idea that when the election was over, the stock market would go down. However, I pointed out that this is so obvious to professional traders that it may well begin going down before the election.

(See http://radio.weblogs.com/0128608/2004/01/27.html )

Well, if you have not noticed, the market is going down. I don't think that it is because of earnings or interest rates and all that. In my opinion, the driving force is the growing realization that a) Bush may not win, b) If Kerry wins, the 15% capital gains tax is history, and c) even if Bush wins it is very likely that Congress will have to raise the capital gains tax to balance the budget.