Back to the Future

From an investment viewpoint, I continue to be amazed at the similarities between this decade and the 1970s.

The seventies followed a long bull market which peaked in 1969 and then crashed. As I recall, it bottomed in May of 1970. (I remember the day well. I was sitting in a hotel in Brighton Beach, England reading the Herald Tribune. Douglas Aircraft, which had hit about 100 some months earlier closed at 13 in panic selling.) During the 1970s the overall stock market fluctuated but went nowhere until 1981.

Here are some similarities between this decade and the 1970s:

Both decades started after a major stock market bubble and crash
Real estate prices made major gains
The government engaged in massive deficit spending
The US was bogged down in an overseas war
Gold prices advanced sharply
Oil prices advanced sharply, affecting the economy
The yield curve was inverted for a period of time
Raw material prices (steel, copper, timber, etc.) increased steadily

Here are some things that happened in the 1970s which have not happened (yet):

Inflation was rampant
The value of the US dollar declined significantly
Gold became a popular investment and reached an all time peak
Investing in "collectibles" (art, stamps, etc.) became very popular

There are some interesting parallels between the political climate of the 1970s and this decade. However, this blog tries to stay away from politics and I won't go into that.

Even though the stock market averages made no material change between the beginning and the end of the 1970s, a few canny investors in growth stocks, notably Peter Lynch, made a huge amount of money. His book is as relevant today as ever.