Sunday, February 27, 2011

Why I don't like bonds


We bought some dungeness crab yesterday.  They cost $12.96 each. I remember that when I first visited San Francisco in 1953 crabs cost 25 cents each on the wharf.  So inflation has increased the price of crab fifty fold.

At the same time that I first visited San Francisco I was typically paying 21 cents a gallon for gasoline.  Sometimes a price war would reduce the price to 19 cents a gallon but 21 cents was typical.  Gasoline now costa a bit over $3.00 a gallon.  That's a 15 fold increase.

People say that the good thing about bonds is that unlike stocks you can be sure you will get your money back in the end.  Maybe so, but you can be sure that the money will be worth damn less when you get it.

(Footnote:  I visited the wharf in San Francisco with my family twenty years later.  Crab had doubled in price to 50 cents each.  I was appalled.)

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