Clueless

I sometimes give an opinion on the stock market. I have been silent on that subject because recently I have had no opinion. For the first time that I can remember, I can see nothing worth buying, nothing worth selling short. In principle, real estate is a good alternative to stocks and bonds. However, real estate has become very pricy and there are recent signs of speculation that signal a coming crash.

There are two points of view toward this, each equally valid: The Gerald M. Loeb point of view, expressed in "The Battle for Investment Survival" would be to hold cash until business was bad. Then, buy. Modern Portfolio Theory would say to always be invested, but in a variety of asset classes.

I have a hunch that the rise of hedge funds has changed the day to day and month to month character of the market. For example, hedge funds have bet so much against the coming fall in the US dollar that it is not falling. Maybe everything is so hedged that bad news or good news is offset by hedge funds unwinding their positions.